By John Njoroge:
The ruling party and President John Pombe Magufuli are both leading by far (update: final results are now out, see an update note at the end of the article), trailing the weak opposition in Tanzania following the 28th October General elections.
As usual, as the results were pouring out, the oppostion parties, activists and western propaganda machination, all over, resorted to one simple phallacy; whether the election was free and fair. Actually I heard the opposition rejecting the results on the basis of some irregularities.
Let me address that first before I share what I believe to be the reasons for weaker oppostion this time around in Tanzania.
The term free and fair has no one meaning in electoral governance across the world; countries abhor diverse socio-political systems and so is how they manage their elections.
The fact that all political parties took part in campaigns nationwide and said all what they could except where some of them had to be sanctioned by the National Election Commission for ethical misconducts, have their own obsevers/agents in the voting and tallying rooms, means the necessary parameters were met. The leading opposition Candidate, Tundu Lissu, initially, said he was satisfied initially by the voting processes but later on changed mind.
Additionally, reports from Tanzania reveals how masses of voters turned out to vote in a peaceful manner except in some highly contested streets in the Spice Island of Zanzibar, in the Pemba sub Island.
Media reports from Tanzania and other international outlets rate the election to be the most peaceful one in the recent times atleast gauging by the voting day, although some Foreign Embasses like the US and Canadian seem to have their own candidates and have occassionally expressed concerns that Tanzanians defied and moved on.
Local observers and the East African Communities including the regional obervers like EISA endorsed the election
But the US embassy in Dar es Salaam looks frustrated to see a peaceful election in Tanzania, atleast by what their New Ambassador in Dar writes every now and then on social media.
The new US Ambassador in Dar es Salaam may not be aware that Elections in Tanzania like in other countries in Africa were known to be marred by long voter lines, heavily gunned police officers and in most cases voting day tend to record use of tear gas and, few times, the use of live arms.
This time around, that was not the case everything went safe during the voting day and in early results that are coming out so far. The opposition that was okay with the voting soon turned to reject early results that were not in their favour. This is common in elections.
Complains are now out and will always be there when opposition parties loose elections, but doing a bit of political science based analysis, one would not be surprised to see how Magufuli massively wins this election in Tanzania.
The early results show the incumbent President Magufuli who is known for strong focus on anti-corruption crusade, efficient public service and pro-people mega projects, is trailing the opposition by far (over 85 percent) as the governing party also retains most of the constituencies it lost in 2010 and 2015.
If the US embassy and their allies are not aware, this election was not about the processes, the people had their will already. Magufulis strong socio-economic performance in the last five years is a shining-glory for the CCM and for Tanzanians. The Cogent arguement here is a recuring one: Why The Oppostition Lost? These are ny reasons:
1. Weak Opposition
Unlike in 2015 where the opposition united under the banner of one presidential candidate and political parties leaving to each other key constituencies, this time around about 14 political parties went out individually trying to oust Magufuli.
Such a disunited opposition, you don't need to find a Professor of political science to do a report for you to see how the opposition put itself on the edge of loosing the election.
2. Leading Opposition Candidates Who Turned Weak
The most leading opposition parties, CHADEMA and ACT-Wazalendo, fielded two prominent politicians: Advocate Tundu Lissu and former Foreign Minister Ben Membe respectively.
Tundu Lissu, analysts argue, is an outspoken human rights activists but failed to argue his case prominently to common Tanzanians who see Magufuli as their saviour and warrior.
"Lissu's main strategy was to disprove what Magufuli did; challenging his mega projects and the level of development without himself unleashing a credible alternative policy if elected," says Konrad Adlang from the Southern African Institute of Democracy and Good Governance.
On the other hand, Mr. Membe who was expected to bring to the opposition his massive experience in politics, security and international affairs to boost the campaign, however, reports indicate that he could not attend campaign rallies in many parts of the country for reasons beyond my horizon.
3. Ideology vs Development
The opposition's ideology on development seems controversial. In their fierce attack against what Magufuli had done in the past five years, they usually challenged his focus on infrastructure.
The opposition's ideology that said they would focus on peoples development was not well defended or rlaborated on how can a country attain pro-people development without investing in such enablers such as roads and bridges!
4. Controversial Policies
Some opposition parties in Tanzania had very controversial policies, weak enough to be able to have massive support from the people.
One opposition candidate, Mr. Hashim Rangwe, forinstance, pledged to provide cooked rice with beans to all Tanzanians if elected! How do you win a decisive election with simple policies like that!
Mr. Tundu Lissu on his part, being a human rights advocate and a Warwick alumni in the UK, defended certain western values, the most controversial one, his position on homosexual relationships. How do you win an African election with such policies highly unacceptable in religion and African traditions!
Political scientists unanikously agree, these were petty alternative policies to oust Magufuli, who enjoys a very strong record in delivering his promises. This brings us to Magufuli's own strengths.
5. Magufuli's Strong Record
I always argue, when I do a purview of Tanzania, that any meaningful analysis on the massive failures of the opposition in Tanzania, this time and before election, must be well pillared on an interplay of factors touching upon weaknessess within the opposition itself on one hand and the strengths of Magufuli himself.
Known across Africa for his strong and at times controversial stances, Dr. John Pombe Magufuli by all measures is not an easy candidate to tear off.
He came into power in November, 2015, and unleashed a unique leadership style christened as _"Magufulification"_.
He pursued the corrupt officials in the government, dismissed top level officials for emblezlement, reshufled his cabinet whenever he discovered inefficient Ministers and did very well in socio-economic transformation.
He revamped the national airliner, and spent own funds, no loans like in Kenya, to fund Africa's largest electric railway project, the $3.0 billion Standard Gauge Railway; from Dar es Salaam to the country's Capital Dodoma.
He pursued other high level infrastructural projects including the $2.9 billion Africa's fourth largest hydropower project in the Stieglers Gorge in Selous. He built roads, flyovers, bridges and social services like health centers and hospitals.
He offered free education for all students from primary and secondary schools and increased loans to higher learning students.
His controversial no-lockdown-no-mask policy during the Covid-19 pandemic, still remains one of the huge factors that made Magufuli discussed all over the world with citizens in other countries praising him. Many nations are now immitating most of his approaches in dealing with the Corona virus.
Facts are facts, it is apparently a daunting task to beat Magufuli the delivery minded African President. Tanzanian opposition should therefore refrain from luring and lying to the international community on petty allegations of misconducts in the just ended election.
Flaws and minor irregularities that do not cause illigality of an election cannot be avoided in elections; the process is people manned and some delays may occur, voting may delay, papers may delay and this happens even in the US.
The Heritage Foundation, a US based not for profit organization, forinstance, always puts on record such irregularities common in US elections, see: https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud.
In the forthcoming November elections in the US, President Trump himself is already worried of possible frauds in the electoral processes.
Conclussively, minor irregularities are common in most elections, political parties must base on critical and substative issues before they complain once they loose.
In my humble opinion, the election in Tanzania, is such an example where the opposition must go back to their drawing board, reorganize and try their lucky in the forthcmoning opportunities, this one was open and clear, they saw their own seeds of defeat, long before.
UPDATE: Magufuli was declared a winner with over 12m votes (84%) trailed by far by Mr. Tundu Lissu with a mere 1.9m votes.
*The author is a Kenyan political analyst based in Sandton, South, Africa, but now on a 1 year fellowship at Umaine, USA.
Lovely analysis
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